If Earl keeps to its current course, it will remain 150 to 200 miles offshore as it clips the Outer Banks of North Carolina Wednesday and passes New Jersey during the day Friday, but it will still churn up the sea and keep lifeguards along the Jersey Shore on high alert.
Some forecasters and emergency management officials are warning residents up and down the East Coast — including the Garden State — to remain on high alert in case the storm drifts further west than computer models are projecting. Hurricane-force winds could extend dozens of miles out from the hurricane’s eye, so any deviation from its track could spell trouble for coastal communities.
With revelers set to flock to the Shore this Labor Day weekend to get one last dip for the season, Earl’s effects might put a crimp in any early plans. Some towns already are talking about closing beaches to swimming.
‘‘It’s going to be hot. People are going to be coming to the beach because it’s the last unofficial weekend of the summer,’’ said Lucas Fogerty, a lifeguard emergency medical technician at Seaside Heights. ‘‘We’re going to try to let people in the water as much as possible, but we don’t want to make it dangerous for them.’’
Kristin Kline, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service’s Mount Holly office, said Earl — assuming it stays on its current path — won’t pack much of a punch by the time it reaches New Jersey, but it will stir up dangerous rip currents and some big surf.
Although the storm may force some evacuations in North Carolina, as of tonight Earl is on track to brush past New Jersey, staying far enough out to sea to keep rainfall, winds and flooding to a minimum, she said.
‘‘If you live right along the coast, it’s good to be aware of the winds if you need to prepare,’’ Kline said. ‘‘With the current forecast track, it’s not going to cause a lot of damage.’’
But the effects of its northerly march will be seen long before its expected arrival late Thursday into Friday. The ocean will start churning up Wednesday, creating rip currents and high surf that should last through Friday before diminishing Saturday as the storm pulls out, Kline said.
Fogerty said lifeguards at Seaside are already pulling lifeboats from the beach in preparation for the high tides. They’ve also decided they may allow swimmers into the ocean only up to their knees Wednesday and may restrict swimming altogether on Friday because of the size and force of the waves and their potential to create dangerous rip currents.
Rough waters were already causing some problems along the shoreline this afternoon. Seaside Heights police had to close local beaches at about 5 p.m. because of strong riptide currents — the lingering effects of another storm, Hurricane Danielle, far out in the Atlantic.
The U.S. Coast Guard had also dispatched a helicopter and a boat to spearhead the search for a missing 23-year-old male in Asbury Park today, according to Petty Officer Jonathan Lindbergh, an agency spokesman. Lindbergh said the man went into the surf sometime after 5 p.m. and has not resurfaced.
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The American Red Cross, which trains the lifeguards on the Jersey Shore, is urging beachgoers to be especially attentive and vigilant, said Melissa DeGennaro, a spokeswoman for the organization’s Jersey Coast chapter.
‘‘Labor Day weekend — the pressure’s on,’’ she said. ‘‘We’re trying to be ahead of the game. There’s going to be a lot of people here.’’
DeGennaro said her chapter finished packing five trailers of emergency supplies — including cots, comfort kits and blankets — ready to be deployed to any shelters in New Jersey should they be needed over the weekend.
‘‘We’re preparing for the worst situation,’’ she said. ‘‘Maybe the eye of the storm isn’t going to pass over New Jersey, but there are a lot of flood-prone areas at the Shore,’’ she said.
The Red Cross also has 100 volunteers trained in disaster relief services ready to go where they’re needed, whether it’s in New Jersey or elsewhere.
Earl is expected to usher in showers and thunderstorms in Ocean, Atlantic and Cape May counties tomorrow into Friday, but not in the form of torrential downpours. Kline said only a quarter-inch to a half-inch of rain should fall if the storm stays on its current track.
Tropical-storm force winds of up to 40 mph will hit the southern coast, most likely from Atlantic City and down, Kline said. Those winds, pushing water toward the coast, also means that area has the better chance of experiencing flooding, which should be minor, she said.
Fogerty, the lifeguard EMT, said Earl should create a surfer’s delight: 6-foot waves Wednesday, and nearly double that height on Friday.
Monmouth County has weathered many storms over the past year and is ready for Earl, said Glenn Mason, the county’s emergency management coordinator. Emergency equipment and supplies are already in each of its 53 municipalities, and the county is providing local emergency management coordinators with regular storm updates, he said.
‘‘We’ve had three nor’easters and four snow storms this year,’’ Mason said. ‘‘So what’s one more hurricane?’’
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