The tropical storm that has come to be called Hurricane Earl has been watched closely since it began gathering force in the Caribbean. Earl was first a Category Three hurricane and is now a Category Four storm. The Hurricane Earl path has been closely watched to determine how likely it is to hit the United States. The hurricane has turned toward the East coast and will probably hit the U.S. mainland by Labor Day. The storm will likely hit north of Virginia. Cape Cod and Long Island are expected to bear the brunt. Earl track right along the coast
The Hurricane Earl projected path follows the U.S. East Coast. According to the Washington Post, the path of Earl will bring it close to the mainland, but will not likely make land fall. The expected effects are that high winds, altered currents off shore, and intense rain will occur in areas near or directly on the coast, but little more than that. However, some areas have already been evacuated. The evacuated areas are mostly islands off the coast, mostly resort towns. Advisories have been issued all along the East Coast, from South Carolina to Nova Scotia. FEMA is on it this time
The Federal Emergency Management Agency has met with President Obama. FEMA has established plans for evacuation and put emergency supplies in place in several states, and is in a heightened state of alert. Only a few evacuations have taken place so far, mostly around the Outer Banks off North Carolina. Ocracoke Island and Hatteras Island were both emptied of tourists. Maryland and Virginia have declared states of emergency. Earl path
The path of Earl is expected to follow the U.S. coastline north from its present location off North Carolina. However, it isn’t certain yet whether the storm will or won’t hit land. The eye of the storm, if it follows the projected path, will be well out to sea. However, cities on the coast could expect to receive some heavy winds and rain, as New York City and Boston are both expected to.
If Hurricane Earl and Tropical Storm Fiona were not enough to keep the National Hurricane Center busy, than Tropical Storm Gaston surely will be. The Storm was named this afternoon, and just complicates matters for the NHC who already have their hands full.
Tropical Storm Gaston, as of the 5 PM EST National Hurricane Center advisory, is located in the central Atlantic at 12.9°N 37.0°W. Currently it is a minimal tropical storm with winds of 40 miles per hours. It is moving due west at 15 miles per hour. The official track has Gaston moving slowly over the next 48 hours, before picking up forward speed on Saturday. The 5 day projected path brings Gaston about 300 miles East of the Leeward Islands on Monday. From there forecasts get more complicated. Several computer models have it entering the Caribbean Sea. As for intensity, it will likely strengthen to a category 1 hurricane by this weekend.
JERSEY SHORE — Just in time for summer’s last hurrah, Hurricane Earl, a powerful Category 4 storm churning in the Atlantic Ocean, is expected to deliver deadly rip currents, big surf and potentially tropical-storm force winds as it skirts the New Jersey coastline Friday.
If Earl keeps to its current course, it will remain 150 to 200 miles offshore as it clips the Outer Banks of North Carolina Wednesday and passes New Jersey during the day Friday, but it will still churn up the sea and keep lifeguards along the Jersey Shore on high alert.
Some forecasters and emergency management officials are warning residents up and down the East Coast — including the Garden State — to remain on high alert in case the storm drifts further west than computer models are projecting. Hurricane-force winds could extend dozens of miles out from the hurricane’s eye, so any deviation from its track could spell trouble for coastal communities.
With revelers set to flock to the Shore this Labor Day weekend to get one last dip for the season, Earl’s effects might put a crimp in any early plans. Some towns already are talking about closing beaches to swimming.
‘‘It’s going to be hot. People are going to be coming to the beach because it’s the last unofficial weekend of the summer,’’ said Lucas Fogerty, a lifeguard emergency medical technician at Seaside Heights. ‘‘We’re going to try to let people in the water as much as possible, but we don’t want to make it dangerous for them.’’
Kristin Kline, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service’s Mount Holly office, said Earl — assuming it stays on its current path — won’t pack much of a punch by the time it reaches New Jersey, but it will stir up dangerous rip currents and some big surf.
Although the storm may force some evacuations in North Carolina, as of tonight Earl is on track to brush past New Jersey, staying far enough out to sea to keep rainfall, winds and flooding to a minimum, she said.
‘‘If you live right along the coast, it’s good to be aware of the winds if you need to prepare,’’ Kline said. ‘‘With the current forecast track, it’s not going to cause a lot of damage.’’
But the effects of its northerly march will be seen long before its expected arrival late Thursday into Friday. The ocean will start churning up Wednesday, creating rip currents and high surf that should last through Friday before diminishing Saturday as the storm pulls out, Kline said.
Fogerty said lifeguards at Seaside are already pulling lifeboats from the beach in preparation for the high tides. They’ve also decided they may allow swimmers into the ocean only up to their knees Wednesday and may restrict swimming altogether on Friday because of the size and force of the waves and their potential to create dangerous rip currents.
Rough waters were already causing some problems along the shoreline this afternoon. Seaside Heights police had to close local beaches at about 5 p.m. because of strong riptide currents — the lingering effects of another storm, Hurricane Danielle, far out in the Atlantic.
The U.S. Coast Guard had also dispatched a helicopter and a boat to spearhead the search for a missing 23-year-old male in Asbury Park today, according to Petty Officer Jonathan Lindbergh, an agency spokesman. Lindbergh said the man went into the surf sometime after 5 p.m. and has not resurfaced. EARL01.jpg
The American Red Cross, which trains the lifeguards on the Jersey Shore, is urging beachgoers to be especially attentive and vigilant, said Melissa DeGennaro, a spokeswoman for the organization’s Jersey Coast chapter.
‘‘Labor Day weekend — the pressure’s on,’’ she said. ‘‘We’re trying to be ahead of the game. There’s going to be a lot of people here.’’
DeGennaro said her chapter finished packing five trailers of emergency supplies — including cots, comfort kits and blankets — ready to be deployed to any shelters in New Jersey should they be needed over the weekend.
‘‘We’re preparing for the worst situation,’’ she said. ‘‘Maybe the eye of the storm isn’t going to pass over New Jersey, but there are a lot of flood-prone areas at the Shore,’’ she said.
The Red Cross also has 100 volunteers trained in disaster relief services ready to go where they’re needed, whether it’s in New Jersey or elsewhere.
Earl is expected to usher in showers and thunderstorms in Ocean, Atlantic and Cape May counties tomorrow into Friday, but not in the form of torrential downpours. Kline said only a quarter-inch to a half-inch of rain should fall if the storm stays on its current track.
Tropical-storm force winds of up to 40 mph will hit the southern coast, most likely from Atlantic City and down, Kline said. Those winds, pushing water toward the coast, also means that area has the better chance of experiencing flooding, which should be minor, she said.
Fogerty, the lifeguard EMT, said Earl should create a surfer’s delight: 6-foot waves Wednesday, and nearly double that height on Friday.
Monmouth County has weathered many storms over the past year and is ready for Earl, said Glenn Mason, the county’s emergency management coordinator. Emergency equipment and supplies are already in each of its 53 municipalities, and the county is providing local emergency management coordinators with regular storm updates, he said.
‘‘We’ve had three nor’easters and four snow storms this year,’’ Mason said. ‘‘So what’s one more hurricane?’’
There's no absolute certainty in weather forecasting. But the future of Tropical Storm Fiona, the most recent in a trio of named storms, is more uncertain than the storm's two immediate predecessors, Danielle and Earl.
As of this evening, Tropical Storm Fiona had a sustained wind of 40 mph and was roughly 850 miles to the east of the Leeward Islands.
The official National Hurricane Center forecast is for the tropical storm to slowly strengthen but remain below hurricane strength as it takes a track very similar to that of Earl for the next few days. Forecasters expect the storm to be centered just to the north of the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, where Hurricane Earl was early today.
At this point, there are as many questions as answers about Fiona's future.
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Since both Danielle and Earl blossomed into major hurricanes over the open Atlantic when moving through an environment with warm water and little wind shear (upper-level wind flow that inhibits hurricane formation), it might be expected that the same type of intense development would follow with Fiona.
But Fiona has been slower to organize, and government forecasters point to dry air and a lack of organization as factors that will continue to slow the storm's development during the next couple of days. The risk is that Fiona could fight off the dry air in its way and begin to take advantage of the very warm water and develop regardless of the current lack of organization.
In addition, Fiona is expected later this week to move into an environment with wind shear, which could also inhibit development. One of the reasons for the expected shear may very well be Fiona's proximity to Earl in a few days. Since Fiona is moving more quickly than Hurricane Earl -- 24 mph versus 15 mph as of this evening -- the upper-level wind being created by Earl might slow the development of Fiona.
The weaker and less organized Fiona is at the time it encounters shear, the more likely it is to be weakened by shear.
The forecast track of Fiona also carries some uncertainty. Forecasters are confident that the storm will track northwestward -- similar to Earl -- for at least the next few days, and there's a good chance that the storm will remain to the east of the United States. But changes in the overall weather pattern from the weekend and beyond mean that other forecast tracks are possible.
With so many questions, it's important that anyone with interests from the northeastern Caribbean to the United States continue to monitor the progress of Fiona in the coming days.
Hurricane Earl is set on a path for the U.S., currently projected to head up north to lower New England and potentially could maintain its hurricane strength while doing so. As someone who has experienced major hurricanes firsthand--I experienced the eye of Hurricane Andrew in Miami in 1992, and the pre-New Orleans effects of Hurricane Katrina--I have seen how difficult hurricanes can be. The emotional and physical damage is real (during Andrew, we lost all of our shingles, our roof caved in, our porch blew away, and I wound up a traumatized elementary school kid).
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Without minimizing the crouching-in-a-bathtub-while-your-house-pirouettes-around-you effect, it's important to remember how expensive storm damage can be, and how helpful it is to take preventive measures. Even though Earl doesn't look like it's going to pull any category 5 wizardry on the Northeast, consider Katrina's effect on my childhood home: It was only category 1 or 2 when it hit, but our roof leaked so terribly that we had to use our generator to run the dryer in order to produce more towels to stop up the water--we'd used every single towel in the house. The same thing happened to all our neighbors, because all of our roofs were exactly 13 years old, since they'd all last been replaced after Andrew. Preventive measures like customized shutters are extremely expensive, but, after the stories I've heard, I wouldn't put my trust in ply board.
Bottom line: Prevention is expensive, but cleanup is even more expensive. The Northeast isn't used to hurricanes, but if you're looking for someone to tell you about stocking up on bottled water, just ask the Miami girl in me.
