Arizona Primary Results 2010

All year long, people have anxiously awaited the Arizona Senate primary results for the Republican primary. It features John McCain, probably the most prominent Republican senator, their 2008 presidential candidate, a favorite guest on the network talk shows, and perhaps the definition of the establishment. In the other corner is JD Hayworth, who left Congress under a cloud only to resurrect his career as a populist radio talk show host. Exit polls available here if anywhere, but we are uncertain this hour if exit polling data will be taken.

Updated Arizona primary results: John McCain winner in a blowout over JD. Hayworth! Vote count will be about 2-1.



This is probably McCain’s last hurrah into electoral politics. He is 73 years old, has a history of extensive health problems, has a wealthy, attractive wife who seems bored with the whole campaigning ethos, and finds his lifelong positions more and more rejected by mainstream Republicans, let alone the Tea Party movement. So he has decided that, in order to win, he will reject many of his erstwhile policies in order to win one last time. He opposed the Bush tax cuts when originally proposed; now, he favors them. He supported immigration reform that sought to make citizenship easier for illegal immigrants, while preserving the illusion of restricting entrance; now, he is all about border security. When he ran for president, he supported repeal of don’t ask, don’t tell; now, he tells voters he will filibuster repeal. He has also spent $20 million to defeat JD Hayworth in Tuesday’s primary.

Hayworth appeared close to toppling McCain last year. Polls repeatedly showed the race to be close. When Sarah Palin came to the state to campaign for her 2008 running mate, many in the horde of her fans who went to her campaign events stated that they planned on supporting Hayworth. But the expensive negative ad campaign being waged by McCain appears to be working. Ads have criticized the challenger for, among other things, and questioning Obama’s citizenship and his close connection to Jack Abramoff, which led to his decision to leave the House. Hayworth hopes that the expensive ad campaign will backfire upon the incumbent senator.

Hayworth, meanwhile, is charging that McCain’s new views have an expiration date – election day, 2010. He claims that the senator, once he wins and is removed from the hands of the electorate, will revert to his old positions at that time.

Senator McCain has clearly affected the results of this primary with his spending. Polls, seen below, verify that he has gained a substantial advantage. Hayworth’s only chance for victory now rests on the hope that turnout is very low; that only strongly committed supporters of either candidate decide to cast their ballots. This may be a longshot. However, political scientists have long contended that when both sides wage negative campaigns, it substantially reduces turnout. This is because a function of negative ads is that it turns people off who leaned toward the opposition. When both sides engage, only strong supporters will vote on either side. So, Hayworth has to hope that turnout is very low, and that he has more strong supporters than does McCain.

Previously, we’ve already discussed the issue differences between these two candidates here. Now tell us what you think of the Arizona primary, results as they happen. Any exit poll data is welcome in the comments, as are your predictions for who is the winner in the McCain Hayworth race.


Senate Polls, Arizona, Republican Primary Race
Polling Date Polling Company John McCain (R) J.D. Hayworth (R)
7/21/2010 Rasmussen 54% 34%
7/11/2010 Behavior Research 64% 19%
6/22/2010 Magellan 52% 29%
6/16/2010 Rasmussen 47% 36%
5/18/2010 Rasmussen 52% 40%
5/6/2010 Daily Kos 48% 36%
4/29/2010 PPP 46% 35%
4/28/2010 Behavior Research 54% 28%
4/16/2010 Rasmussen 47% 42%
3/18/2010 Rasmussen 48% 41%
1/20/2010 Rasmussen 53% 31%
11/20/2009 Rasmussen 45% 43%